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johnnic  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, December 20, 2006 10:34:38 PM(UTC)
johnnic

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I currently focus my trading on Australia's top 300 stocks, the ASX300. The problem is that, in backtesting any system on those stocks I feel that I am introducing an unhelpful survivorship bias. That is, the simple fact that a particular stock is currently in Australia's top 300 suggests that over the past six years or so it has probably done better than the market in general. I am certain that the ASX300 list today is completely different to that which existed six years ago.

I'm looking for suggestions on how I overcome this shortcoming?

I could try and establish the stocks that constituted the list six years ago and use that for my backtesting. That sounds sensible but I think might be difficult to actually find the list.

I guess I could broaden my backtesting to a much broader range of stocks but that also seems to be counterproductive unless I intend to actually trade that much broader range, which I don't.

Can anyone help?

John

Richard Dale  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, December 20, 2006 11:48:51 PM(UTC)
Richard Dale

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Location: Norgate Data

Figure out a liquidity filter (a moving average of C*V should do it) that roughly includes the current top 300 securities.

Then backtest against a set of data that includes delisted securities.

Cheers,
Richard.



Cheers, Richard Norgate Data
johnnic  
#3 Posted : Thursday, December 21, 2006 1:29:50 AM(UTC)
johnnic

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thanks Richard, I'll give it a go.

John

Jose  
#4 Posted : Thursday, December 21, 2006 1:23:34 PM(UTC)
Jose

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Location: Koh Pha-Ngan, Earth

Was thanked: 2 time(s) in 2 post(s)
You may also be interested in the methodology I use to approximate both survivorship and market trend biases. See Trading System Evaluation/Development Tools and applications. jose '-)
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