Rank: Member
Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers Joined: 11/20/2006(UTC) Posts: 21
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I currently focus my trading on Australia's top 300 stocks, the ASX300. The problem is that, in backtesting any system on those stocks I feel that I am introducing an unhelpful survivorship bias. That is, the simple fact that a particular stock is currently in Australia's top 300 suggests that over the past six years or so it has probably done better than the market in general. I am certain that the ASX300 list today is completely different to that which existed six years ago.
I'm looking for suggestions on how I overcome this shortcoming?
I could try and establish the stocks that constituted the list six years ago and use that for my backtesting. That sounds sensible but I think might be difficult to actually find the list.
I guess I could broaden my backtesting to a much broader range of stocks but that also seems to be counterproductive unless I intend to actually trade that much broader range, which I don't.
Can anyone help?
John
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Rank:: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers Joined: 4/5/2006(UTC) Posts: 129 Location: Norgate Data
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Figure out a liquidity filter (a moving average of C*V should do it) that roughly includes the current top 300 securities.
Then backtest against a set of data that includes delisted securities.
Cheers, Richard.
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Rank: Member
Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers Joined: 11/20/2006(UTC) Posts: 21
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thanks Richard, I'll give it a go.
John
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Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered, Registered Users Joined: 1/19/2005(UTC) Posts: 1,065 Location: Koh Pha-Ngan, Earth
Was thanked: 2 time(s) in 2 post(s)
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