logo
Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login or Register.

Notification

Icon
Error

Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
*PP  
#1 Posted : Monday, June 11, 2007 5:33:44 AM(UTC)
*PP

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 4/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 135
Location: Romania

Well, after a lot of headaches here it is http://www.draculasystems.com. Far by being perfect at least its not a cheat.[:D]

henry1224  
#2 Posted : Monday, June 11, 2007 4:54:56 PM(UTC)
henry1224

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 10/29/2004(UTC)
Posts: 1,394
Location: Glastonbury, CT

Was thanked: 2 time(s) in 2 post(s)
$603 USD for just one System, such a deal! Black box password protected, for all I know it could be just a system using peak and trough functions.
*PP  
#3 Posted : Monday, June 11, 2007 5:45:49 PM(UTC)
*PP

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 4/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 135
Location: Romania

Well Henry, u could say anything u want, it is ur opinion and i respect it. Still one thing disturbs me: after i have clearly specified in site that it does not cheat in any way - it is not using hidsight functions, it is not buying on the same bar at the open or something similar, no forward references, also clearly explain how one could find if a system is cheating (playing with x axes loaded periods) - here u come and say that it could cheat. Maby from where u come or for u something like that its usual but u should not asume that everywhere its the same. U have just made me a liar and it is not nice, however again especially for u: it does not cheat.

$603 for just one system - well i guess at this price u could buy 60 systems with 100% return/year at $10 i am sure that if u search the net u will find even more than 60, my system is just one and yes its $603, one is free to choose after how its brain dictates, $603 and if u ask me its way under the real value of my sustained work/efforts and achieved results.

Black box password protected - now this is something that i undersand but what can i do...i will not reveal such a method, even tough i do not consider it spectacular just yet, if i could improve it it will really be spectacular...however its not that simple.

i am really sorry for ur tone and the way u have put the problem. wish u all the best.

minnamor  
#4 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2007 1:14:32 AM(UTC)
minnamor

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 4/27/2005(UTC)
Posts: 126
Location: Italy

Having had a look at your site, I had a number of questions from the Nasdaq 100 page (similar questions would arise from other tests):

a) only 87% of trades taken; why not all of them?
b) 23% annualized compounded interest rate means test done with pyramiding profits or not? What is the 37.5% p.a. number in brackets?
c) long and short or only long?
d) test on bullish market since 2003; consistent results prior to 2003 in bearish market?
e) no mention of entry trigger and/or order type.
f) no details on position size model and preferences used in TradeSim.
g) do you have tradesim professional Montecarlo simulation results?.

Regards.

*PP  
#5 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2007 3:36:48 AM(UTC)
*PP

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 4/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 135
Location: Romania

Hey Minnamor,

a) not enough capital

b) read the first page within my site, a little above the discalimer. Average non compounded achieved %/year

c)long

d) u really did not look carefully. Tests were made from 1993.

e) read the first page within my site, a little above the discalimer

f) same as e)

g) last chart presented in every page is from a montecarlo simulation

PTJim  
#6 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2007 2:39:41 PM(UTC)
PTJim

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 5/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 252

Thanks: 11 times
Was thanked: 9 time(s) in 6 post(s)
Do you offer a money-back guarantee if we don't generate automatic riches, or does our money disappear into a black box?

The Dennis/Eckhardt Turtle experiment showed that people can be trained to be competent and even great traders, but not all people. Even with a fully-disclosed system, supervised by the inventors, some Turtles washed out because they couldn't develop the confidence to always follow the system - even a system that was being shown to work right before their eyes. So how do you expect potential customers to have faith in and follow a black box? Black boxes don't inspire confidence, rather questions and/or suspicion.

Can you cite a black-box system sold anywhere, at anytime, by anyone that's demonstrably profitable for the people who have bought it rather than the people selling it?

Since it's black-box, we can infer that your motives are to sell it for a profit, not to teach the skills and techniques behind it. Therefore, why not just trade your system for yourself, reaping the big rewards, instead of going to all the trouble of setting up a company, packaging/documenting the product and then putting up with after-sale support and development? Is all that work still worth more to you than just trading your system for yourself?

And BTW, unless you're 13 years old (and not even then if you have any brains or wish to appear to have brains), the word is "you", not "u".

*PP  
#7 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2007 3:02:05 PM(UTC)
*PP

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 4/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 135
Location: Romania

PTJim wrote:

And BTW, unless you're 13 years old (and not even then if you have any brains or wish to appear to have brains), the word is "you", not "u".

Really? i did not knew. I think the best thing to do is ignore u and u ignore me.

I wish u good luck and profitable trading.

PTJim  
#8 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2007 4:31:44 PM(UTC)
PTJim

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 5/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 252

Thanks: 11 times
Was thanked: 9 time(s) in 6 post(s)
Thank you; your glossing over my questions provides sufficient answer.

I wish you profitable trading too.

hayseed  
#9 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2007 9:59:34 PM(UTC)
hayseed

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 3/7/2005(UTC)
Posts: 1,346

hey *pp..... couple questions if ya have the time and it doesn't reveal anything you prefer not to.........

1 .... what's the reason for the "any portfolio of securities that you want as long as it contains over 100 securities," statement in paragraph 2 .... here in the states some of us trade just the qqqq's , spyders , diamonds and such.... will it not work on single securitys?.....

2... both the nasdaq and nas 100 tests commence from the bottom of the bear market, which is of course ok, but what is the deal with " 26% Annualized Compounded Interest Rate " ..... if that is refering to interest paid while funds are dormant, have you ran tests with out an interest parameter...... reread everything several times but i may be still missing the answer.....

should add here, i'm not familar with tradesim at all......h

Jose  
#10 Posted : Wednesday, June 13, 2007 12:58:25 AM(UTC)
Jose

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 1/19/2005(UTC)
Posts: 1,065
Location: Koh Pha-Ngan, Earth

Was thanked: 2 time(s) in 2 post(s)
PP, an anonymous poster claims to have gained access to your trading system's logic for backtesting purposes. I've looked everywhere on your website, but can't find a description of your trading system detailed enough to allow any backtest. Did I miss something, or is the anonymous poster making claims based on hot air? jose '-)
*PP  
#11 Posted : Wednesday, June 13, 2007 2:04:18 AM(UTC)
*PP

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 4/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 135
Location: Romania

hayseed wrote:

hey *pp..... couple questions if ya have the time and it doesn't reveal anything you prefer not to.........

1 .... what's the reason for the "any portfolio of securities that you want as long as it contains over 100 securities," statement in paragraph 2 .... here in the states some of us trade just the qqqq's , spyders , diamonds and such.... will it not work on single securitys?.....

2... both the nasdaq and nas 100 tests commence from the bottom of the bear market, which is of course ok, but what is the deal with " 26% Annualized Compounded Interest Rate " ..... if that is refering to interest paid while funds are dormant, have you ran tests with out an interest parameter...... reread everything several times but i may be still missing the answer.....

should add here, i'm not familar with tradesim at all......h

1. fairly simple, if u try to trade only a few securities it will not generate enough trades.

2. if u start with 100000 and u achieve 250000 within aproximately 1610 days it means that u have gained a compounded interest of aprox. 23%. Compounded interest is calculated after the following formula: PV(1+rate)power 365/n = FV formula from where u will get rate =((FV/PV) power 365/n -1), where

PV present value in our case 100000 the initial capital

FV future value wich is 250000 the finishing capital

rate - interest rate

Yes u are right about starting at the begining of the trend, that was because from 2000 peak the market index lost more than 55% which means that it lost around 11% anualized compounded interest rate. My strategy traded from the begining of 2000 gained around 11-12% compounded interest.

U don`t have to be familiar with tradesim to know that H, those are required things to know because else one does not have any ideea about what resonabel means.

Any questions are welcomed and answered as long as they are adressed in a proper way.

*PP :)

*PP  
#12 Posted : Wednesday, June 13, 2007 2:11:46 AM(UTC)
*PP

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 4/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 135
Location: Romania

Jose wrote:
PP, an anonymous poster claims to have gained access to your trading system's logic for backtesting purposes. I've looked everywhere on your website, but can't find a description of your trading system detailed enough to allow any backtest. Did I miss something, or is the anonymous poster making claims based on hot air? jose '-)

I don`t know Jose...one thing is certain i did not post/give the system or its logic/code to anyone.

I will send my tradedatabase to anyone for testing so its no problem. The results should match with those within my site.

*PP  
#13 Posted : Wednesday, June 13, 2007 3:20:03 AM(UTC)
*PP

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 4/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 135
Location: Romania

It seems that posting a trading system with his results is a huge mistake. From what i see the majority has absolutly no ideea about what a resonable gain means and how one could know if his results are good or bad. Everyone has different expectations from the market and unfortunately it seems that those expectations are anything but realistic. Personal here is how i see the things: in the last 10-15 years the market indexs (US) gained around 8-11% compounded interest.A strategy with 20% compounded interest over those years is more than resonable. To achieve this results a strategy must take the folowing path: it must win aproximately the same amount as the market index, puls or minus somehing, in positive years and it must protect u from losing as much as the market index in bad years. This is what i consider to be resonable and worth pursuing.

Everyone is free to have his/hers own expectations from this trading thing. I saw a lot of claims about 100% return /year, now... i hope that one really understands what that means. 100% / year and 100000 strating capital would make u richer than the richest man on the planet in about 20 years. U think that this is a resonable expectation? i don`t. And even if in one particular year is possible for a trading strategy to achieve 100% return that is due to the fact that it has been traded in a very good year. I don`t claim that achieving 100% return/year is impossible but if one can do that then to compare his strategy with holy grail would be an ofense for his strategy.

I really don`t know how my strategy will perform in the following years. It may be not worth pursuing, it may yield better results than those shown in tests, what i know is the following thing: statisticaly it has above 50% wins and a average win/loss above 1. It is equivalent with playing a game in which you will win for example $1.01 lets say 51% of time and lose $1.00 49% of time. Mathematicaly that is positive...of course its not exactly that simple but just as an example. Now my biggest concern is not if this strategy will win, because if statistics are any good then in time the result will be positive, but the extent in which it will be profitable...

hayseed  
#14 Posted : Wednesday, June 13, 2007 6:58:54 AM(UTC)
hayseed

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 3/7/2005(UTC)
Posts: 1,346

hey *pp..... thanks.... i clearly see the reason for the basket of stocks now.... yes, one of the most difficult tasks for me is to sit on my hands while waiting for signals..... with more securities signaling there would be far less waiting......

i also clearly understand the interest comparison now.... there are many ways to benchmark gains and risk free interest is no doubt the best way..... i've just never seen it presented that way... but then my experience has been limited to metastock.....

there is much lost in translation from one country to another, often lost even if both countries speak the same language..... that can be from the different use of terms..... as an example, here in the states we might say the dow has gained 20 % but i've never seen/heard it refered to as gained around x% compounded interest ......

i looked at and read every page on your site, at least twice before asking questions...... thanks again for the answers.....h

PTJim  
#15 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2007 12:35:03 PM(UTC)
PTJim

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 5/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 252

Thanks: 11 times
Was thanked: 9 time(s) in 6 post(s)
*PP wrote:

I really don`t know how my strategy will perform in the following years. It may be not worth pursuing, it may yield better results than those shown in tests, what i know is the following thing: statisticaly it has above 50% wins and a average win/loss above 1. It is equivalent with playing a game in which you will win for example $1.01 lets say 51% of time and lose $1.00 49% of time. Mathematicaly that is positive...of course its not exactly that simple but just as an example. Now my biggest concern is not if this strategy will win, because if statistics are any good then in time the result will be positive, but the extent in which it will be profitable...



Not sure how that'll look in the brochure, right before the part where it says the price is 450 Euros. [:)]

Users browsing this topic
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.