Welcome ck ;) Well I don't have an answer for you but I like your question. I do agree that "gurus" spend way too much time selling their system to be actually using it ... Let see what answers you get :D Patrick :mrgreen:

You have the same question that is in my mind for years. I mean if their system is so good, and produces all these fabulous results why are not they trading it instead of wasting their time to gain a few100 Bucks or so. As for my own trading: I do not do back testing, do not like it, instead all my trading systems are in the format of Expert Advisor with symbols highlight to see where the signals went before. I prefer to do a forward testing with real Market data at the heat of the battle), back testing removes a very important element from the fight, EMOTIONS. The system could be very good on paper or even the best, BUT would I dare to take the signals in REAL LIFE when real money is at stake?! And yes I stick to my trading systems after forward testing with real money (of course with proper money management) One of my best systems that give very good results (unfortunately is not totally automated yet, I am a trader but not that good of a programmer) is: * Breakout of a down trend line (LTB) * Draw Fib as shown * Buy at the double bottom (Very close stop in place usually 1%) First yellow bottom * Add more at the second yellow bottom * Sell everything near the top of the first Top (to lock profit) red line * If the stock goes above (there would be a start buy little above the first top, to make sure I am in the game again if continues to go up (Pivot High Confirmed), and if it does not I am already out with profit) * If the buy order is filled, I sell only in two occasions, loss of up trend line (LTA) or the target reached depending on the stock expectation. Works like a charm! Bulli

Hi turtle, Could you post your traading system here? I would apprecaite that you can share your experience on the average return on the capital, say by month, that you use based on the system (I suppose it is a system with money management as you said).... I like what Bulli said, back testing only says the system theoretically works. We must do some kine of forward testing to test whether your emotional reaction is right per the system / strategy planned. Bulli, how long do you do for the forward testing before you really put the money on the table to trade? sa

turtle, Thanks for sharing with us. However, can you show it in a picture to visualize the picture which is very helpful to us to learn? sa

This is what I do: * First I take a look at the signals for the past two years of the chart. * Then if I like the way the signals look, I put money right away BUT small number os stocks, (something like 500 to 2000 stocks). * I never enter a trade if the win/risk ratio is less than 2:1 * The stocks I use for test are only Blue Chips or 1st Line stocks, nothing 2nd line or penny stocks. Finally money management is always in PLACE. If things goes wrong, I am out and restudy why it went wrong. Was the signal wrong, I freaked out, or market news, etc. Once in the game, the exit is clear and no place for hesitation. Hope this answers your question. Bulli

Thanks everyone for your informative responses. Jose, looks like you have done very well to say the least. What about anyone else? Can anyone say they are consistently beating say, the S&P, using a tech system with the same risk or less?, Would love to hear from you. I guess I am trying to prove the guys who say they've never met a rich technical analyst ;)

Thanks Turtle, I agree with everything you've said. I am not a novice and am aware of the importance of MM and would never expect "P1 to tell me P2". Trust me when I say there is not a lot about MM or trading systems I haven't read. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder so fundamentals are familiar to me too and I have seen many fundamentalists make a lot of money from their particular style. The purpose of me starting this thread is simply to ask if anyone is making money using the systems they have have developed or purchased. My fear is that people (myself included) spend countless hours on tools like metastock etc backtesting, optimizing and experimenting with countless combinations of indicators without ever really sticking to one and making money in the market. From experience I have seen more TA or mechanical traders forget that success is making REAL money in your trading account and not just to find a system that just backtests well. After all, the recommended way to scan for stocks in the Metastock manual is by all accounts the definition of data mining. That is, it finds the best sectors, then best performers in those sectores and then finds the factory installed system that provides the best optimized backtested results. That is data mining and curve fitting at it's best. Don't get me wrong I am not knocking anything about MS or TA or system trading. I would be very surprised if there wasn't many people making great money off it. I guess I am doing a little experiment to see in a forum like this where everyone is basically doing the same thing, if anyone is making real money. So I ask again, can anyone say they are trading real money with a trading system and beating the S&P with the same or less volatilty in their trading system? If so, for how long? Also would love to know your returns with associated volatility. Thanks.

hey ck.... the conditions in your question ruled me out.... my trading is in the diamonds, spyders and oex pit.... you are likely aware of the gains, losses and volatility ...... if ya have the time, was wondering if there was a reason for the the same or less volatilty part of your question..... and, How many people actually stick with a system? , is there a reason for the one system limitation..... perhaps your familiar with Citizens 'handy chart', excellent for shorting in downtrends but tough in uptrends..... for me, volatilty is an asset and using only 1 system would be a liability..... h

Turtle, Thanks for your commentary, very interesting. You make a very valid point about corporate corruption and shenanigans. Too bad to hear about your friend at Enron. I like your Oracle example, I agree with you. If you want to see a similar current situation, (that being an upside breakout from a steady downtrend), check out Cintas (CTAS). Hayseed, They reason I mentioned same or less volatility is because I beleive in comparing returns on an risk-adjusted basis. For example if system A returned 15% and systems B returned 15% but system A did it with less portfolio volatility, then system A's performace on a risk adjusted basis is better. You can use a Sharpe Ratio to calculate and compare risk adjusted returns. The formula is R(port) - R(risk free rate) divided by Std Deviation. As for one system, I don't think one should stick necessarily to one system only. I know the title implies that, but the funny thing is I don't think that was the title I wrote when I first posted. Is it possible that it was edited? Because I thought I titled the thread something like "Who is beating the market with their systems". Strange. No I have never heard of Citizen's handy chart. What is it? Thanks guys for your informative replies. This seems like a great forum. I am plowing through the users manual and formula primer. I promise not to ask any stupid questions until I have done all my prep work and homework. Yes, I did read the rules of the forum :lol: OK, back to the users manual I go! All the best. CK

I only do my own research, but thanks.