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oem7110  
#1 Posted : Monday, May 5, 2014 8:36:05 PM(UTC)
oem7110

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If my entry is based on 20 days moving average, then I don't know why I need to look at long-term 50 days moving average and short-term 10 days moving average for trend direction, no matter what, my entry is still triggered by 20 days moving average, does anyone have any suggestions on why I need to look at long-term and short-term trend?
Thanks in advance for any suggestions
wabbit  
#2 Posted : Monday, May 5, 2014 8:56:10 PM(UTC)
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Computationally and logically, it's prudent to minimise the number of inputs to a system so the system performance is still maximised. Adding inputs which are not used (or ignored) is pointless and should be avoided. Adding too much "information" (or noise) can lead to "analysis paralysis"; if you only need x-indicator in agreement with y-filter to trigger a trading response, there is no point in computing or plotting anything else.

If you omit information necessary to maintain the system performance at its optimum then you'll be reducing the system performance and may end up destroying it; it's a fine balance.

oem7110  
#3 Posted : Monday, May 5, 2014 11:10:40 PM(UTC)
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wabbit wrote:
if you only need x-indicator in agreement with y-filter to trigger a trading response, there is no point in computing or plotting anything else.


If long-term and short-term indicators act as a filter to trigger a trading response, then what to choose as filters in following combination:

1) Using the same type of indicator with longer or shorter term, such as
Trigger using 20 days moving average
Filer using 10 and 50 days moving average

2) Using the different type of indicator with longer or shorter term, such as
Trigger using 20 days moving average
Filer using 10 days RSI and 200 days money flow indicator

Do you have any suggestions on whether trader should choose the same type of indicators or different types of indicators as filters?

Thank you very much for any suggestions :>

wabbit  
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 6, 2014 12:12:17 AM(UTC)
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An interesting question, a question to which there is no definitive answer.

There is very little point in computing highly correlated indicators, as all this does is give the trader a warm, fuzzy feeling without giving any new information on which to base the trade; unless of course, your system is based on exploiting the times when the correlation suddenly changes (or diverges), or each component is required to work dependently with its correlated partner. (Both and none at the same time!)

You need to fully understanding the construction, capabilities and limitations of every indicator you want to employ e.g. take EMAs. You open a chart and plot the EMA10, EMA20 and EMA50. The EMAs are all neatly stacked; the price is above the EMA10 which is above the EMA20 which is above the EMA50 and they have been neatly stacked like this for quite some time. What does this indicate to you? For some (investors or traders, it doesn't matter) they might see the confirmation of an uptrend and will enter the trade right away. Some traders might see this as a missed opportunity as they believe they should have got in when the prices first became ordered, so are going to ignore this chart for now and move on. Some will start watching the chart, waiting for the first sign of weakness. How they see the data is irrelevant; how you see the situation is the only thing which is important?

There is a school of thought to which many traders subscribe: individual trade signals are generated based on individual charts, but filters should be based on broader market data. You might utilise some RSI or MFI indicators on a stock chart as triggers, but you might ignore (or filter) generated long trading signals if three EMAs aren't in the correct orientation on the relevant index chart. But, this might not suit your trading style?

Lots of people have spent a LOT of time employing massive neural networks, genetic algorithms, self-organising maps etc to try and decide the best inputs to a system which delivers the best outputs (I should know, I'm still toying with several different ideas now). No-one has discovered the Grail, no-one has a panacea of inputs which works for every trader in every market all of the time, nor will they. What they might discover is one fine 'edge' that gives them an small advantage for a short time, before they will have to retrain and relearn.

You have to figure out what works for you, then decide on how and when you are going to measure the performance or success of your system and what conditions will have to be met for you to drop/reconsider your system.

oem7110  
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 6, 2014 12:22:49 AM(UTC)
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wabbit wrote:


There is a school of thought to which many traders subscribe: individual trade signals are generated based on individual charts, but filters should be based on broader market data.


If I use 20 days moving average crossover as trigger signal, how to select the long-term filter's type and time frame on broader market data?

Do you have any example on how to apply broader market data as filter?

Thank you very much for any suggestions :>
wabbit  
#6 Posted : Tuesday, May 6, 2014 1:09:33 AM(UTC)
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A very simple example:

Buy if C(stock)>EMA20(stock) and C(Index)>EMA200(Index)

Such a "system" would prevent you from entering long trades when the market (as described by the index) was not in an up-trend (defined by the index price vs. its EMA200).

Whether you choose the whole-of-market index, or a sub-sector index, or currency exchange rate, interest rate, commodity price etc is up to you.

oem7110  
#7 Posted : Tuesday, May 6, 2014 1:53:38 AM(UTC)
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wabbit wrote:
A very simple example:

Buy if C(stock)>EMA20(stock) and C(Index)>EMA200(Index)

Such a "system" would prevent you from entering long trades when the market (as described by the index) was not in an up-trend (defined by the index price vs. its EMA200).



Case 1
The context between stock and index is different, and the time frame between 20 and 200 is different too.

Case 2
The context between stock and index is different, and if the time frame for stock and index use the same period 20 days, would it be a better choice on time frame?

Do you have any suggestions on which case is better?

Thank you very much for any suggestions :>
wabbit  
#8 Posted : Tuesday, May 6, 2014 2:14:10 AM(UTC)
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I cannot define "better" for you; only you can do that.


oem7110  
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 6, 2014 4:21:36 AM(UTC)
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It seems making more sense if we select 20 days for stock and index, doesn't it?
Indicators look at the market from different context, but consider them in the same time frame.
Just like, we can compare student A's average score in France university on 2013 with student B's average score in India university on 2013.
It seems strange to compare student A's average score in France university on 2013 (1 year) with student B's average score in India university between 1979 and 1982 (4 years) .

Does it make any sense in this case?

Do you have any suggestions?

Thank you very much for any suggestions :>
wabbit  
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 6, 2014 4:33:48 AM(UTC)
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Instead of supposing, postulating and hypothesising, why not use some of the tools at your disposal, such as the Enhanced System Tester to test some of your theories to see if you can better define for yourself "what makes sense"?

oem7110  
#11 Posted : Tuesday, May 6, 2014 4:41:45 AM(UTC)
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Thank you very much for suggestions :>1
Laisze  
#12 Posted : Wednesday, May 7, 2014 1:01:21 AM(UTC)
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“If I had an hour to solve a [question], I'd spend 55 minutes thinking about the [question] and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.”

- Albert Einstein
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