Rank: Newbie
Groups: Registered, Registered Users Joined: 1/25/2006(UTC) Posts: 4
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When reviewing the results of a simulation, one of the more interesting metrics is the "Annualized Performance." But as I'm experimenting with MS, (I've had the program for a little over a week now), I've come to the understanding that this % annual return does not take into account how many days a given simulation may have had the trader out of the market.
With some approaches, this can have a dramatic impact on the perception of results. For instance, I just ran a simulation that yielded an "Annualized Performance," per the Enhanced System Tester, of 9%. Not very impressive. But the simulation had me out of the market for 79% of the time. So, isn't the real, time-adjusted return on capital employed 43%? (.09) / (1 - .79) = .43
My capital would not have been tied up for the entire period of the simulation. It could well have been earning a return elsewhere. (To simplify things, I set the "money market" rate paid to me by the broker to 0%.)
I find that I'm doing a lot of calculations outside of MS to convert the EST's annualized performance to a time-adjusted, annualized performance.
Does anyone have any ideas on this? Is there a simpler way for me to handle this? I'm only in my second week with MS, so I could well be missing something.
Thanks,
Don
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Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered, Registered Users Joined: 1/19/2005(UTC) Posts: 1,065 Location: Koh Pha-Ngan, Earth
Was thanked: 2 time(s) in 2 post(s)
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Don100 wrote:So, isn't the real, time-adjusted return on capital employed 43%? (.09) / (1 - .79) = .43
Say, what would happen if your capital was active in the market for only a few days a year? Imagine the massively annualized profits/losses derived from such a short period.
If it's any help, the MACDH Divergence kit deals with this issue with its risk-normalized, annualized profit indicators (and exploration) for single securities.
jose '-)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers Joined: 3/7/2005(UTC) Posts: 1,346
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hey don.... you have a good point but meta is calculating the annualized performance correctly as with the standard definition of it.... your real, time-adjusted return might give some unreal results..... your absolutely correct that we should create other metrics to gauge systems by....
for time out of market most will set a money market rate, the combined will give an accuate result.... anything else is making assumptions....
you can create systems that will make several thousand % in a few months... using your real, time-adjusted return math and extrapolating that return into a yearly return is impossible, or at least is for me....
haven't seens jose's deal but i can envision his aproach and sounds his risk-normalized is what your after.....h
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Rank: Newbie
Groups: Registered, Registered Users Joined: 1/25/2006(UTC) Posts: 4
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Thanks Jose and hayseed. That helps.
I have visited MetaStockTools.com and have found it to be extremely helpful. I'll look at the MACDH Divergence kit.
Don
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