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Trend expert does not show the same information as the chart - Trend expert does not show the same information as the chart
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FXLearning  
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2006 4:28:56 PM(UTC)
FXLearning

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Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 1/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 39
Can someone help me with the following issue please?

UserPostedImage

As you can see in the attached chart I have a daily time frame from 2002 till the present of Eur/Usd.

I have the following trend expert for longs (based on formulas I collected from Henry):

Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Weekly Most sensitive") > 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 2 1 Weekly 2nd most sensitive") > 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 3 1 Weekly 3rd most sensitive") > 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 4 1 Weekly 4th most sensitive") > 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 2 Weekly 5th most sensitive") > 0

For shorts I have the the following expert:
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Weekly Most sensitive") < 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 2 1 Weekly 2nd most sensitive") < 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 3 1 Weekly 3rd most sensitive") < 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 4 1 Weekly 4th most sensitive") < 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 2 Weekly 5th most sensitive") < 0

Internally, they look like this:

Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Weekly Most sensitive") is the same as the following:
{TD 1 2 thru TD 4 2 are based on Weekly Pivots so when plotted on daily charts they will not change as frequently as Daily Pivots}
TD11:= ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,1);
TD11;

However, if you look at the bottom ribbon, it is a little out of synch.

In 2002, (the first red color on the left of the ribbon), the expert said to go short; however, at this point the Euro decided to take off north.

In 2004, the sixth green spot of color from the left, the Euro went down (half way through the green spot); however, the expert was long.

The same thing happened with the seventh green spot half way through the green spot the Euro went down.

In 2005, with the last green spot, the Euro went down, but the expert was long.

With the last red spot, the expert was short, but the Euro went up.

How can I compensate to have an expert that behaves like the chart? In other words, I would like an expert that is more consistent with what I am looking at in the chart.

Regards,

FXLearning
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guara_riua  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2006 1:33:28 AM(UTC)
guara_riua

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 4/24/2005(UTC)
Posts: 77
Location: Canada
FXLearning

Using exclusively TD to generate trading signal seems to me quite a difficult task, in order to catch the trend as early as possible and to ride it as long as possible.
This is impossible to achieve mostly because of the ways the PP+ algorithms work:
- TD=1 only if the last high pivot is violated
- TD=0 only if the price went trough a last low pivot price
The above conditions make TD to generate invariably LATE signals.

One way to generate shorter trades and to limit the chance to be on the wrong market side, could be this: - enter long when the higher time frame high pivot is violated - exit long when the current time frame low pivot price is violated
Similar for short trades.
However, this strategy seems too simplistic to me to generate signifficant gains, and more than likely it should be improved using additional indicators to help identify earlier entries and correct exits.
Remember that PP+ primary use is to identify support/resistance levels and to bid on these levels being violated or holding.

Regards
Guara
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henry1224  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2006 2:02:35 AM(UTC)
henry1224

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Joined: 10/29/2004(UTC)
Posts: 1,394
Location: Glastonbury, CT

Was thanked: 3 time(s) in 3 post(s)
Dear FX,

Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Daily Most sensitive") > 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 2 1 Daily 2nd most sensitive") > 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 3 1 Daily 3rd most sensitive") > 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 4 1 Daily 4th most sensitive") > 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 2 Weekly 5th most sensitive") > 0

For shorts I have the the following expert:
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Daily Most sensitive") < 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 2 1 Daily 2nd most sensitive") < 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 3 1 Daily 3rd most sensitive") < 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 4 1 Daily 4th most sensitive") < 0 AND
Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 2 Weekly 5th most sensitive") < 0

What you have now are 2 conditions "when all trends are in sync"

Try this on the daily chart

TD:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,2);
Long:=Sum(TD>0,2)>1;
Short:=Sum(TD<0,2)>1;
Long-Short

another version

TD1:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,1);
TD2:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",2,1);
TD3:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",3,1);
TD4:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",4,1);
TD5:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,2);
Long:=(Sum(TD1>0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD2>0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD3>0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD4>0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD5>0,2)>1);
Short:=(Sum(TD1<0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD2<0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD3<0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD4<0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD5<0,2)>1);
Long-Short;
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FXLearning  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2006 8:19:47 AM(UTC)
FXLearning

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 1/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 39
guara_riua wrote:
FXLearning

Using exclusively TD to generate trading signal seems to me quite a difficult task, in order to catch the trend as early as possible and to ride it as long as possible.
This is impossible to achieve mostly because of the ways the PP+ algorithms work:
- TD=1 only if the last high pivot is violated
- TD=0 only if the price went trough a last low pivot price
The above conditions make TD to generate invariably LATE signals.

One way to generate shorter trades and to limit the chance to be on the wrong market side, could be this: - enter long when the higher time frame high pivot is violated - exit long when the current time frame low pivot price is violated
Similar for short trades.
However, this strategy seems too simplistic to me to generate signifficant gains, and more than likely it should be improved using additional indicators to help identify earlier entries and correct exits.
Remember that PP+ primary use is to identify support/resistance levels and to bid on these levels being violated or holding.

Regards
Guara


Guara,

How right you are!

I changed the instruction of trend to the following:

Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Weekly Most sensitive") > 0 for longs

Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Weekly Most sensitive") < 0 for shorts

Where the formula stands for the following:

{TD 1 2 thru TD 4 2 are based on Weekly Pivots so when plotted on daily charts they will not change as frequently as Daily Pivots}
TD11:= ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,1);
TD11;

The chart looks better; however, as you pointed out it is still late.

I have attached the same chart as before with this new instruction for comparison.

UserPostedImage

You can see that it more consistent with the changes of the chart; however, I have also included a blow up chart to understand what is happening at a more detailed view. :oops:

UserPostedImage

Is this the best I can do?

Regards,

FXLearning
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FXLearning  
#5 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2006 8:26:29 AM(UTC)
FXLearning

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 1/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 39
henry1224 wrote:

Dear FX,

Try this on the daily chart

TD:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,2);
Long:=Sum(TD>0,2)>1;
Short:=Sum(TD<0,2)>1;
Long-Short

another version

TD1:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,1);
TD2:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",2,1);
TD3:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",3,1);
TD4:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",4,1);
TD5:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,2);
Long:=(Sum(TD1>0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD2>0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD3>0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD4>0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD5>0,2)>1);
Short:=(Sum(TD1<0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD2<0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD3<0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD4<0,2)>1)+(Sum(TD5<0,2)>1);
Long-Short;


Henry,

I tried your solution; however, I got just as sensitive results by including only the following instruction (please see previous post for chart results):

Longs: Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Weekly Most sensitive") > 0
Shorts: Fml( "Pivot Points TD 1 1 Weekly Most sensitive") < 0

where the formula stands for the following:

{TD 1 2 thru TD 4 2 are based on Weekly Pivots so when plotted on daily charts they will not change as frequently as Daily Pivots}
TD11:= ExtFml("PowerPivots.TrendDirection",1,1);
TD11;

I appear to have a one bar delay (which is not a very good thing in forex). I am trying to figure out what to do at this stage. Any suggestions?

Regards,

FXLearning
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guara_riua  
#6 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2006 8:34:25 PM(UTC)
guara_riua

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 4/24/2005(UTC)
Posts: 77
Location: Canada
FXLearning

If your intent is to continue to use ONLY TrendDirection for a Trend Following system, I do believe this could be pretty much it.
Another way to improve the signal timing and to avoid short term wip-saw Buy/Sell signals is to define an "Out Of Market" condition, or equivalently to define an exit signal for each entry (i.e. LE=Long Entry paired with LX=Long Exit; similar for short trades).

For the "zoomed in" chart, I am pretty positive that an indicator like a "Smoothed RSI" or an MACD-Histogram would have identified a Bullish Divergence in that time segment that could be used as a Buy Entry signal or as a Hold signal.

I hope I am "on the money" with my comments.

Regards
Guara
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FXLearning  
#7 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2006 8:30:57 AM(UTC)
FXLearning

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 1/1/2006(UTC)
Posts: 39
guara_riua wrote:

If your intent is to continue to use ONLY TrendDirection for a Trend Following system, I do believe this could be pretty much it.
Guara


Guara,

Thank you for your reply. I am currently searching other alternatives as you suggested.

Regards,

FXLearning
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