“If your system makes a little money all year and loses a lot of money twice a year, reverse your system.” by Richard Dennis (the best trader in this planet?)

Yahoo last night closed up 6.56%! I think we have used one of the best case study. Mr. CK have you jumped into this counter? I am sure 10 out 10 technical traders will have this counter in their trading portfolio. #-o I think it is a fact that price action will come before news reported. Any comment? Yahoo released good news last night? I am far in the eastern part of the earth so don't know much about the yahoo news.

Hi CK, thank for your reply. Not that dofficult to play US market. :) ********************************************************** Does God Play Dice? This lecture is about whether we can predict the future, or whether it is arbitrary and random. In ancient times, the world must have seemed pretty arbitrary. Disasters such as floods or diseases must have seemed to happen without warning, or apparent reason. Primitive people attributed such natural phenomena, to a pantheon of gods and goddesses, who behaved in a capricious and whimsical way. There was no way to predict what they would do ... http://www.hawking.org.uk/lectures/dice.html (very interesting article to read) ********************************************************** Who could fill Alan Greenspan's s[censored]s? Financial markets are typically more volatile during the first year after the handover to a new chairman than during the rest of his tenure. In October 1987, barely two months after Mr Greenspan took office, the stockmarket crashed. Current conditions for a handover are hardly ideal. America's economy has never looked so unbalanced, with a negative household savings rate, a housing bubble, a hefty budget deficit, a record current-account deficit and rising inflation. Figures due on October 14th are expected to show that the 12-month rate of inflation has risen above 4%—its highest since 1991. http://www.economist.com...ory.cfm?story_id=5019763

What I accomplished by sticking to my system was that I always had a line of cotton in every real movement. In the course of accumulating my full line I might chip out fifty or sixty thousand dollars in these feeling-out plays of mine. This looks like a very expensive testing, but it wasn't. After the real movement started, how long would it take me to make up the fifty thousand dollars I had dropped in order to make sure that I began to load up at exactly the right time? No time at all! It always pays a man to be right at the right time. As I think I also said before, this describes what I may call my system for placing my bets. It is simple arithmetic to prove that it is a wise thing to have the big bet down only when you win, and when you lose to lose only a small exploratory bet, as it were. If a man trades in the way I have described, he will always be in the profitable position of being able to cash in on the big bet. - by Jesse Livermore ************************************************** If you read those investment books writing on top traders such as Richard Dennis, Jesse Livermore and so on you will be surprised that all their trading strategies were basically the same that is mostly based on price breakout whether based on 20-day breakout or trendline breakout. They buy on the way up and sell on the way down ... and all of them never use too complicated trading system that no one else can understand. I think it is a common saying for professional trader to make money from stock trading is to KISS (Keep It Simple Stup**) :) Well why I used the particular trendline for Yahoo and not any other trendline? As Jesse Livermore said to make money you have to buy at the right time at the right price! I think no one can predict the future. There maybe a way to predict the future but I am sure no one here know how to so the best method is to use money management to play with the odd. You simple don't know when you will be right and if you are right you must know how to deal with it and if you are wrong you must also know how to deal with it. Simple but not many people can follow this simple rule. I think Mr. CK has made it very clear that the trendline analysis is not an attempt to predict the future event based on past price data but a simple way of detecting the real movement by insider and the Yahoo case study has made it clear that for the past three months it has been ranged within the downward trend and suddenly the price made a move (Jesse Livermore called this an insider move that all of us as trader should be followed) and any real insider move must generate a buy singal no matter what kind of trading system you use or else your trading system is as good as no system at all. :lol:

The following are John's ten most important rules of technical trading: Map the Trends Spot the Trend and Go With It Find the Low and High of It Know How Far to Backtrack Draw the Line Follow That Average Learn the Turns Know the Warning Signs Trend or Not a Trend? Know the Confirming Signs 5. Draw the Line Draw trend lines. Trend lines are one of the simplest and most effective charting tools. All you need is a straight edge and two points on the chart. Up trend lines are drawn along two successive lows. Down trend lines are drawn along two successive peaks. Prices will often pull back to trend lines before resuming their trend. The breaking of trend lines usually signals a change in trend. A valid trend line should be touched at least three times. The longer a trend line has been in effect, and the more times it has been tested, the more important it becomes. http://stockcharts.com/education/TradingStrategies/MurphysLaws.html

Hi Jose, thank for your reply. I cannot say your comments are not right but I will prove to you that I am not wrong as well. Why should we reinvent the wheel if those good stuff is already out there free of charge? Why rewrite the winning formula if Richard Dennis, Jesse Livermore have already proved to us what a winning strategy should be like. You please show me there is more than two set of trading rules in this world. I strongly believe there is only one Winning Rule and one Lossing Rule in this world. That's all. All those trading rule belong to winning rule should be all based on the same set of winning variable/factor/principal. That's why I was so surprised all top traders their trading rules looked very much the same. If Rich Dennis, Jesse Livermore, Mr. CK, Turtle are winning trader using their very own winning trading rule. I can tell you with confident that these winning trading rule may have very different fancy name but the principal of the rule should be logically the same or else the outcome would be the opposite of the winning trade. Anyone of you have any comment? I don't mind comment. Good or bad. That is why we are all here for. Again, I don't like to reinvent the wheel. It is a waste of time. Jesse Livermore has told us everything about stock trading. So go and copy/paste Livermore's trading view/idea. He said Wall Street maybe old. But the nature of it never change. If he is trading Yahoo today, I am sure he will do the same as mine. He also said there is one very simple rule in stock trading. He said price tended to breakout on round number such as 50 or 100. So if you see a stock currently trading at 98, according to Livermore you wait for it to break 100 and then jump in on the breakout. Very simple. =D> Remember. Don't try to reinvent the wheel. It is a waste of your precious time. ****************************************************************** Reminiscences of a Stock Operator published in 1923 offers timeless wisdom for all investors and traders: Never act on tips. Use a system and don't deviate from it. Never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high. If a stock doesn't act right don't touch it; because, being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit. Don't blame the market for your losses. Never add to a losing position. A losing position means you were wrong. Stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don't make a second unless the first shows you a profit. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. Don't argue with the tape. Do not seek to lure the profit back. Quit while the quitting is good--and cheap. There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side but the right side. The speculator's chief enemies are always boredom from within. A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. Bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. Use money management at all times. Establish your trading plan before the markets open. Detailed your plan for each trade. Establish entry and exit points and understand risk reward rations. Accept small losses as part of the game if you want to win. Trade markets from the short side. Stand aside from a position, knowing you have taken a position. Develop a trading plan for each potential situation you may face. Do not look at quotes during the day. Do not concentrate on break-even levels when you are losing. Don't liquidate a winner to keep a loser. Develop and maintain an exit plan. Follow this plan with rigid discipline. Sustain your patience. Big movements take time to develop. Don't be overly curious about the rationale behind a move. The key to wealth in trading is simplicity. http://www.arbtrading.co...selivermore.htmRemember. Don't try to reinvent the wheel. It is a waste of your precious time. ****************************************************************** Reminiscences of a Stock Operator published in 1923 offers timeless wisdom for all investors and traders: Never act on tips. Use a system and don't deviate from it. Never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high. If a stock doesn't act right don't touch it; because, being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit. Don't blame the market for your losses. Never add to a losing position. A losing position means you were wrong. Stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don't make a second unless the first shows you a profit. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. Don't argue with the tape. Do not seek to lure the profit back. Quit while the quitting is good--and cheap. There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side but the right side. The speculator's chief enemies are always boredom from within. A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. Bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. Use money management at all times. Establish your trading plan before the markets open. Detailed your plan for each trade. Establish entry and exit points and understand risk reward rations. Accept small losses as part of the game if you want to win. Trade markets from the short side. Stand aside from a position, knowing you have taken a position. Develop a trading plan for each potential situation you may face. Do not look at quotes during the day. Do not concentrate on break-even levels when you are losing. Don't liquidate a winner to keep a loser. Develop and maintain an exit plan. Follow this plan with rigid discipline. Sustain your patience. Big movements take time to develop. Don't be overly curious about the rationale behind a move. The key to wealth in trading is simplicity. http://www.arbtrading.com/jesselivermore.htm

And I strongly agree with Robert Benchley's Law of Distinction: There are two kinds of people in the world, those who believe there are two kinds of people in the world, and those who don't. jose '-)

... :eek: ... Well I think most member don't even read this thread anymore ... The only reason I still do is because I have to moderate it ... Especially when jose is involved :lol: Turtle, I can't believe that would assume an actor would not be a good trader ... Either way I don't care about anyone's references, or who's better than the other. What's the expression ... "Take everything with a grain of salt". I believe I could learn as much about trading from someone who has failed miserably ... I may actually like that better, at least I would not have someone parade around and try to force feed me some :censored: ... Patrick :mrgreen:

Perceptions, opinions and critiques of trading styles, investing, speculating, etc. don't really have a place in the General Help forum. Please restart this thread in the chit-chat section,