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PieterB  
#1 Posted : Thursday, January 22, 2009 11:09:01 PM(UTC)
PieterB

Rank: Member

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Joined: 11/15/2006(UTC)
Posts: 13
Location: Australia, South Australia, Adelaide

Hi Everyone,

For my own research i am seeing how reliable a number of setups are after x amount of bars (5, 10, 20 etc) and than seeing how after adding in a risk management strategy the system reduces in reliability (winners against losers %) but increases reliability (winners against losers $) and the reduction of drawdowns.

For example i am using a simple stochastic cross as a setup trigger and found that after holding the trade for 16 weeks this setup correct close to 60% of the time.

I export the trades to Tradesim and get 5501 trades triggered.

The problem that i have without changing the setup parameter but the addition of a fixed stop the number of trades triggered increases to 10148.

I can understand the reliability pecentage wise should drop dramatically (down to 33%) but i do not understand why there are more trades. Either they pass the entry criteria or they dont.

Any help would be appreciated

Regards

Pieter
oztrader  
#2 Posted : Friday, January 23, 2009 12:00:06 AM(UTC)
oztrader

Rank: Advanced Member

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Joined: 7/12/2007(UTC)
Posts: 134
Location: Perth Western Australia

Hi Pieter,

In TS do you mean trades processed or triggered?

Are you using the Enhanced System Tester and then exporting certain data to TS or are you testing in TS?

Regards

oz

PieterB  
#3 Posted : Friday, January 23, 2009 12:32:36 AM(UTC)
PieterB

Rank: Member

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Joined: 11/15/2006(UTC)
Posts: 13
Location: Australia, South Australia, Adelaide

Hi Oz,

Thanks for your help.

Tradesim says trades processed. Without stop i get 5501 with fixed stop i get 10148.

I run a MS exploration that exports all trades passing a certain criteria to a TradeSim database. I dont use the inbuilt tester at all.

Regards

Pieter
oztrader  
#4 Posted : Friday, January 23, 2009 12:50:30 AM(UTC)
oztrader

Rank: Advanced Member

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Joined: 7/12/2007(UTC)
Posts: 134
Location: Perth Western Australia

Pieter,

Are you prepared to post your code on the forum (PM is an alternative)?

I also have TS so now understand your process.

When you look at the Trade Database where there is an increase in the volume of trades are there any trades that enter twice on the same day for the same ticker.

Rob

PieterB  
#5 Posted : Friday, January 23, 2009 1:01:51 AM(UTC)
PieterB

Rank: Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 11/15/2006(UTC)
Posts: 13
Location: Australia, South Australia, Adelaide

Thanks Rob code as below.

if i leave the initial stop at .01 cent i get less include the stop i get more. No there are no duplicate trades in the db. This one has me stumped.

LongEntryTrigger:= Cross(Stoch(10,3),Mov(Stoch(10,3),3,S));
LongEntryPrice:= O;
LongInitialStop:= LongEntryPrice - 2 * ATR(30);
LongExitTrigger:= H >= LongEntryPrice + 400;
LongExitPrice:= O;

ExtFml("TradeSim.Initialize");
ExtFml("TradeSim.SetStartRecordDate",1,1,1996);
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableDelayOfEntryByOneBar");
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableDelayOfAllExitsByOneBar");
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableProtectiveStop",0);
ExtFml("TradeSim.UseClosingPriceAsStopThreshold");
ExtFml("TradeSim.SetTimeStop",78);
ExtFml("TradeSim.RecordTrades","Test Setups",Long,LongEntryTrigger,LongEntryPrice, LongInitialStop,LongExitTrigger,LongExitPrice,START);
oztrader  
#6 Posted : Friday, January 23, 2009 1:50:32 AM(UTC)
oztrader

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Unverified Users
Joined: 7/12/2007(UTC)
Posts: 134
Location: Perth Western Australia

Pieter,

I think, with the emphasis on think, that I've got the answer!! [;)]

Would I be correct in saying that in the Trade Preferences window you have left Pyramid Trades unticked? If this is the case then whilst you are in a trade no other entry triggers will be considered. To confirm this is the case, tick Pyramid Trades and you should also get a higher number of trades.

If this doesn't resolve the issue please let me know.

Acknowledge the frustrations but enjoy the challenge........there is plenty of both in the path your taking .

Regards

Rob

PieterB  
#7 Posted : Friday, January 23, 2009 3:52:34 AM(UTC)
PieterB

Rank: Member

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Joined: 11/15/2006(UTC)
Posts: 13
Location: Australia, South Australia, Adelaide

Rob,

No luck.

MS is saying more shares are passing my criteria when i have a stop in place. I exported both trade logs to excel and place one next to the other for the first 24 trades exactly the same. However in my trade log with stops it said FLT was triggered on the 2/1 and entered on the 3/1 i went and checked and it did pass the criteria however the trade log with no stop never mentioned this trade. This continues with stops in place roughly every ten trades i have checked 25 of them and they are all legit trades.

Regards

Pieter
oztrader  
#8 Posted : Friday, January 23, 2009 4:36:55 AM(UTC)
oztrader

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Unverified Users
Joined: 7/12/2007(UTC)
Posts: 134
Location: Perth Western Australia

Pieter,

Quote

"MS is saying more shares are passing my criteria when i have a stop in place. I exported both trade logs to excel and place one next to the other for the first 24 trades exactly the same. However in my trade log with stops it said FLT was triggered on the 2/1 and entered on the 3/1 i went and checked and it did pass the criteria however the trade log with no stop never mentioned this trade. This continues with stops in place roughly every ten trades i have checked 25 of them and they are all legit trades."

This is exactly what I would expect. Lets review what you have coded initially where the probability of an exit is minimal (initial stop = $0.01 or profit stop = LongEntryTrigger+$400.00) and unless you are prepared to Pyramid Trades you will not receive a LongEntry Trigger to enter a new trade until the LOW = $0.01 or the HIGH = LongEntryTrigger+$400.00.

Your second alternative (LongInitialStop = LongEntryPrice - 2 * ATR(30)) will have you exiting trades more regularly and hence meet the criteria to enter trades more frequently.

Come back with any problems.

Regards

Rob

oztrader  
#9 Posted : Friday, January 23, 2009 11:56:15 PM(UTC)
oztrader

Rank: Advanced Member

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Joined: 7/12/2007(UTC)
Posts: 134
Location: Perth Western Australia

Hi Pieter,

Quote

"MS is saying more shares are passing my criteria when i have a stop in place. I exported both trade logs to excel and place one next to the other for the first 24 trades exactly the same. However in my trade log with stops it said FLT was triggered on the 2/1 and entered on the 3/1 i went and checked and it did pass the criteria however the trade log with no stop never mentioned this trade. This continues with stops in place roughly every ten trades i have checked 25 of them and they are all legit trades."

I was just looking at your comments in post 28707 as above and realised that I had assumed (re FLT) that you were referring to the trigger in the 2008 year however on closer examination you may well have been talking about the trigger in the 1996 year which definately indicates a discrepancy!

Awaiting your comments.

Regards

Rob

PieterB  
#10 Posted : Monday, January 26, 2009 7:10:17 PM(UTC)
PieterB

Rank: Member

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Posts: 13
Location: Australia, South Australia, Adelaide

Sorry for the delay went away for the long weekend.

You are right about the FLT trade it was a trade in 1996 and it was its first trade, i was going to say i could understand if there was already a trade in FLT and that's why it didnt re trigger but it was its first.

My understanding is that when you run an exploration the number of triggers should remain constant as it is a true or false question (it's either a cross stochastic or its not) but when we takethose trades to trade sim the number of actual trades taken should go up or down depending on whatever constraint we put in place pyramidding, capital, trade sizes etc etc the thing that worries me is that i am physicaly getting more trades that pass a entry criteria.

Regards

Pieter
oztrader  
#11 Posted : Monday, January 26, 2009 9:46:18 PM(UTC)
oztrader

Rank: Advanced Member

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Joined: 7/12/2007(UTC)
Posts: 134
Location: Perth Western Australia

Hi Pieter,

This had me baffled for a while but then became obvious when I attached an Indicator to the FLT chart representing your ATR Initial Stop (i.e. OPEN-2*ATR(30)).
As Flight Centre was not listed until 1st December 1995 the value of ATR(30) could not be calculated until 16th January 1996, the date on which there were 30 bars of data to calculate ATR(30).

Although there was a trigger on 2nd January 1996 this was ignored because of the above problem.

Regards
Rob

PieterB  
#12 Posted : Tuesday, January 27, 2009 4:59:37 AM(UTC)
PieterB

Rank: Member

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Joined: 11/15/2006(UTC)
Posts: 13
Location: Australia, South Australia, Adelaide

Sorry Rob,

Maybe i don't get it. Can you explain to me why the initial stop influences the number of times a trade passes the entry criteria as the stop is not part of it.

My whole entry criteria is the cross stoch so shouldn't this be the only basis for which stocks pass and which fail. I imagine than TradeSim couldnt act on the trade as the initial stop could not be calculated but i still would have thought it passed. It sounds like MS when it finds a stock that passes the criteria looks back to see if there was a earlier entry point and than uses the stops to see if you would still be in the trade or out of it. If i am rambling let me know

Regards

Pieter


PieterB  
#13 Posted : Tuesday, January 27, 2009 4:01:21 PM(UTC)
PieterB

Rank: Member

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Joined: 11/15/2006(UTC)
Posts: 13
Location: Australia, South Australia, Adelaide

Hi Rob,

Having thought about this overnight the FLT trade was not listed in the trade database without a stop but was listed in the trade database with a stop with an entry on the 2 or 3 of January 1996. I woke up at 3 in the morning thinking about this still.

Regards

Pieter
oztrader  
#14 Posted : Wednesday, January 28, 2009 2:38:53 AM(UTC)
oztrader

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Unverified Users
Joined: 7/12/2007(UTC)
Posts: 134
Location: Perth Western Australia

Hi Pieter,

Why be sorry, as we all know, it takes a lot of guts to put your hand up and say I don't get it!

Hopefully I can offer an explaination that resolves this issue for you.

As I see it we can separate the process into 3 sections making the number of Trades Processed easier to follow:-

1) MetaStock - MS

Calculates every Entry Trigger, Entry Price, Initial Stop, Exit Trigger and Exit Price.

2) TradeSim - TS (Part1 - Trades Processed)

Armed with all the data from MS, TS creates a Trade Database of all the potential trades available (eg. if MS can not calculate the value of an InitialStop, even though an entry has been triggered, the trade will be rejected).

3) TradeSim - TS (Part2 - Trades Taken)

A separate issue!

MetaStock is doing exactly what is required but TradeSim is manipulating the data into completed trades from that point on and is controlling when new trades will be taken albeit on the instructions (code) you supply.

There is every possibility that I still haven't explained this in satisfactory terms as this is not one of my strengths but Pieter I am more than happy to phone you if you PM me your number.

Out of interest this is the code I am using for the two system variations for FLT if you want to run them and compare results but please note the different names ("Test Setups" & "Test Setups 2"):-

{Code with fixed InitialStop}
LongEntryTrigger:= Cross(Stoch(10,3),Mov(Stoch(10,3),3,S));
LongEntryPrice:= O;
LongInitialStop:= 0.01;
LongExitTrigger:= H >= LongEntryPrice + 400;
LongExitPrice:= O;

ExtFml("TradeSim.Initialize");
ExtFml("TradeSim.SetStartRecordDate",1,1,1996);
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableDelayOfEntryByOneBar");
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableDelayOfAllExitsByOneBar");
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableProtectiveStop",0);
ExtFml("TradeSim.UseClosingPriceAsStopThreshold");
ExtFml("TradeSim.SetTimeStop",78);
ExtFml("TradeSim.RecordTrades","Test Setups",Long,LongEntryTrigger,LongEntryPrice, LongInitialStop,LongExitTrigger,LongExitPrice,START);


{Code with variable InitialStop}
LongEntryTrigger:= Cross(Stoch(10,3),Mov(Stoch(10,3),3,S));
LongEntryPrice:= O;
LongInitialStop:= LongEntryPrice - 2 * ATR(30);
LongExitTrigger:= H >= LongEntryPrice + 400;
LongExitPrice:= O;

ExtFml("TradeSim.Initialize");
ExtFml("TradeSim.SetStartRecordDate",1,1,1996);
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableDelayOfEntryByOneBar");
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableDelayOfAllExitsByOneBar");
ExtFml("TradeSim.EnableProtectiveStop",0);
ExtFml("TradeSim.UseClosingPriceAsStopThreshold");
ExtFml("TradeSim.SetTimeStop",78);
ExtFml("TradeSim.RecordTrades","Test Setups 2",Long,LongEntryTrigger,LongEntryPrice, LongInitialStop,LongExitTrigger,LongExitPrice,START);

Regards

Rob

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