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This idea costs nothing. I want to find the best, most profitable (holy grail?) indicator that trades long and short. So I have created my own standard test database comprising three groups/folders of stocks (i) strong bull stocks (ii) neutral (iii) weak bearish. Therefore I can run System Tests and rank performance in a standard way. If people wish to compare indicators/system tests in a standard way, then they could apply them against a "Standard Stock Test Database."
You'll soon see how good or poor some indicators perform in a particular type of market.
Then Equis could have a competition with a prize to see who comes up with the best overall performing indicator/system test. Users would be able to compare the profitability of RMO against Bollinger against Elliott Wave etc. ...or would this be too revealing for some "expert gurus?"
What are your thoughts? Anyone?
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Rank: Advanced Member
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Joined: 11/7/2005(UTC)
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Some company's do this on the net but from their mug shots I questioned their purpose.
My most consistant seem to be 55-60% win/loss ratio, 3:1 profit$/loss$ ratio and around
90 day turnover. This gives almost too many trades to choose from and am using fundementals
to narrow the field further.
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Rank: Advanced Member
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I am very interested in your comments. I've researched candlesticks, for example, and found that they have an average success rate of only 30-35%. When you say "My most consistent", to which indicator or technique are you referring?
rgs
Alphateam
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Alpha, your comment
"So I have created my own standard test database comprising three groups/folders of stocks (i) strong bull stocks (ii) neutral (iii) weak bearish. "
sounds like you trade with the trend
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Rank: Advanced Member
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Hello Henry1224
Yes. you are correct. I do trade with the trend at EOD. I look for strong stocks over 100% pa growth. Buy near support - sell at resistance. Also Buy when down trendline breaks upward. and vice versa: Sell when an uptrend line breaks. I like strong stocks making new highs. In some cases, I can forecast a potential share price move accurate to one penny.
What have you found to be a reliable trading plan? How do you use Metastock?
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Rank: Advanced Member
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Joined: 11/7/2005(UTC)
Posts: 602
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Why I said "most consistent" is that sometimes when I backtest I get these great results, but
when I watch the signals generate in the explorer realtime... the signals stink. Go figure.
I lean towards breakouts since they avoid getting whipsawed in a down market, and don't trade short. Staying out of the bad trades is where I think you can go from 30-35% success to over 50%. I use variations of MFI and MACD. I have gotten a few up to 85% but they are worthless, only trade when planets are aligned and you would have to "back up the truck" to make any money, only a fool would do that.
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Rank: Advanced Member
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In your previous post you said you had 55%-60% winners & gained 3 times more than you lost. So being consistent should mean - getting a good win rate and profit rate over the long term. The stockmarket is a cruel taskmaster you have to pay his dues with losses. You will have winning streaks and losing streaks - like getting heads 5 times out of 5 is statistically "unusually rare, but possible." I have learnt to trust my trade plan because it wins long term. It sounds like you keep tinkering with yours. So despite all the work we do in picking stocks, the ability to lose only a little is the other "dark" side of the trading coin. Which is why, I think testing in all types of markets - bull, bear & neutral is essential. Over time, one gains trading experience and instincts which improves win rae and profit rate. Having lots of trades is good, I suggest running a Rate of Change % over 100 and 200 days to screen your strongest stocks.
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