logo
Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login or Register.

Notification

Icon
Error

Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
wahkao  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, August 15, 2007 11:59:17 AM(UTC)
wahkao

Rank: Newbie

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 5/7/2007(UTC)
Posts: 9

Result of my trading system backtest using metastock

here is the result of my trading system i am backtesting
what i do is run the system onto every security and get the % gain after my system went through them.
it's done in a bear to bull market from 1 Jan 2000 to 27 Apr 2006
after that i deleted all untraded stocks to the stock count seen here. My country has about 780 securities
comments please.

Winnings:
Average percent gain 23.39%
Standard Dev 24.18%

Total count 105



Losings:
Average percent gain -6.83%
Standard Dev 5.59%

Total count 87

Summary
Aveage percent gain 8.28%
Average Standard Dev 14.8830734
Total Count 192

Win/Lost count ratio 1.206896552
Percent gain/lost ratio 342.62%



* at first glance, the reward/risk(Percent gain/lost ratio) ratio looks good. i think the Standard Dev of the winnings is insanely high! that the one biggest thing i am uncomfortable with. doesnt look like the average profit of 23.39% is a real profit. Can someone with statical knowledge help me with it?

* are there any other considerations?
wahkao  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, August 15, 2007 1:07:53 PM(UTC)
wahkao

Rank: Newbie

Groups: Registered, Registered Users, Subscribers
Joined: 5/7/2007(UTC)
Posts: 9

there are many securities and i shall give the average
average winning trades / losing trades = 1.3/1.5

average profit/average loss = 2.35 <== this result cannot really be accurate because when a stock has only no losses or no winners, the results come out as "N/A"


top 3 trades :
121%
104%
100%

bottom 3 trades:
-25%
-23%
-22%
nobel_1101  
#3 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2007 8:25:49 AM(UTC)
nobel_1101

Rank: Member

Groups: Registered, Registered Users
Joined: 5/17/2005(UTC)
Posts: 24
Location: London

Hi wahkao

You may want to break up your test period into segments (i.e. 2000-01, 2002-03, 2004-05, etc. or smaller).

That way you can check whether the large standard deviation is an inherent feature of the trading system or the result of a bad period of trades (i.e. a particular market scenario).

If there are periods where the system is doing particularly badly, then at least you can find out what's causing the poor performance. Ideally you want the system to perform reasonably well over all market scenarios.

Regards

Craig

Users browsing this topic
Guest (Hidden)
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.