Dear Red, there are several types of formulas that will fit your needs.

You can try the Profitunity Alligator balance lines, You can use Moving Averages.

If you have the PowerPivots Plus Add-on you can use Trend Direction.

this is the powerpivots plus version of Chaos Balance lines from Profitunity by Bill Williams

Indicator

factor:=Input("TFactor", 0, 1000, 1);

offset:=Input("Offset", 0, 1000, 0);

HD:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataCreate",1, factor);

LD:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataCreate",2, factor);

ChaosBlueBL:=

{Alligator Blue Balance Line - Jaw}

{13 bar smoothed average offset 8 bars}

Ref(Wilders((HD+LD)/2,13),-8);

ChaosRedBL:=

{Alligator Red Balance Line - Teeth}

{8 bar smoothed average offset 5 bars}

Ref(Wilders((HD+LD)/2,8),-5);

ChaosGreenBL:=

{Alligator Green Balance Line - Lip}

{5 bar smoothed average offset 3 bars}

Ref(Wilders((HD+LD)/2,5),-3);

ChaosBlueBL:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataLocalize", ChaosBlueBL, factor, offset);

ChaosRedBL:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataLocalize", ChaosRedBL, factor, offset);

ChaosGreenBL:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataLocalize", ChaosGreenBL, factor, offset);

ChaosGreenBL;

ChaosRedBL;

ChaosBlueBL;

Long entry for expert

factor:=1;

offset:=0;

HD:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataCreate",1, factor);

LD:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataCreate",2, factor);

A3:=

{Alligator Blue Balance Line - Jaw}

{13 bar smoothed average offset 8 bars}

Ref(Wilders((HD+LD)/2,13),-8);

A2:=

{Alligator Red Balance Line - Teeth}

{8 bar smoothed average offset 5 bars}

Ref(Wilders((HD+LD)/2,8),-5);

A1:=

{Alligator Green Balance Line - Lip}

{5 bar smoothed average offset 3 bars}

Ref(Wilders((HD+LD)/2,5),-3);

UCloud:=Max(A1,Max(A2,A3));

LCloud:=Min(A1,Min(A2,A3));

UCloud:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataLocalize", UCloud, factor, offset);

A3:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataLocalize", A3, factor, offset);

A2:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataLocalize", A2, factor, offset);

A1:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataLocalize", A1, factor, offset);

LCloud:=ExtFml("PowerPivots.TDataLocalize", LCloud, factor, offset);

Z:=If(C>Ucloud,1,If(C<LCloud,-1,0));

Z=1 AND Ref(Z,-1)<1{Long entry} just change this line with one of the below lines

Same indicator without Power Pivots Plus

ChaosBlueBL:=

{Alligator Blue Balance Line - Jaw}

{13 bar smoothed average offset 8 bars}

Ref(Wilders((H+L)/2,13),-8);

ChaosRedBL:=

{Alligator Red Balance Line - Teeth}

{8 bar smoothed average offset 5 bars}

Ref(Wilders((H+L)/2,8),-5);

ChaosGreenBL:=

{Alligator Green Balance Line - Lip}

{5 bar smoothed average offset 3 bars}

Ref(Wilders((H+L)/2,5),-3);

ChaosGreenBL;

ChaosRedBL;

ChaosBlueBL;

Long entry for Expert

A3:=

{Alligator Blue Balance Line - Jaw}

{13 bar smoothed average offset 8 bars}

Ref(Wilders((H+L)/2,13),-8);

A2:=

{Alligator Red Balance Line - Teeth}

{8 bar smoothed average offset 5 bars}

Ref(Wilders((H+L)/2,8),-5);

A1:=

{Alligator Green Balance Line - Lip}

{5 bar smoothed average offset 3 bars}

Ref(Wilders((H+L)/2,5),-3);

UCloud:=Max(A1,Max(A2,A3));

LCloud:=Min(A1,Min(A2,A3));

Z:=If(C>Ucloud,1,If(C<LCloud,-1,0));

Dear Henry,

Thanks for codes.

I have tried version without PP+.
Results were poor: entries in downtrend, late entries in sideways trend...

I have tried ADX and DI+, DI- [ LongEntry:= PDI(14) > MDI(14) AND ADX(14)>20 ] but results are also weak. Type of trend is not reliable detected...

Do you have some better idea for more reliable trend recognition?

RR

I think the general trend following probability of success is 38%, but you can still make money from it even simple moving average crosses for example a cable EMA cross 7/55, hourly charts, trail 50 pips and take profit at 200 traded between 7 and 5 GMT would make over 2000 pips in a year with a P:L of about 3.5. Not to go too much in depth but when I started trying to improve upon it I couldn’t really, I just trade it and it works. You do have to put up with consecutive losses of around 7 or 8 but over time it’s a winner.

The old maxim of KISS seems to be apt in this case. It is purely technical with no fundamental influence.

I would love to improve upon the stats so if you do come across anything I would appreciate a nudge.

Cheers

YF

Jose

I can speak with a little confidence on it as I have studied MA's for a while and it can be argued that the average would be about 38%.

Can it help trading become more profitbale? Absolutly, knowing the probability is essentail to calculating position size and being able to ride the consecutive losses and enjoy the winners that when they do come in are about 3 times your losses - without that it woud not be profitable.

Can I ask how you, roughly, calculate your position size?

Cheers

YF

p.s. thanks for the reply on Trade2win. Im actualy using some of your code for a strategy Im developing.