Rank: Member
Groups: Registered, Registered Users Joined: 6/25/2005(UTC) Posts: 27
|
wabbit wrote:All, please don’t take this post the wrong way - I only intend to assist, not to offend:
I would be EXTREMELY careful about completely automating a trading system, even if the software systems are capable of doing so.
I have yet to see any successful semi-automatic trading system, let alone a fully automatic one. People have been working for years and years to make 'nearly right' systems and trade those systems only because they have the final choice about the trade itself. Even then, the majority of people who trade will end up losing money and return to other income stream solutions. I cannot remember the numbers exactly nor the source, but not so long ago in a lifestyle magazine it was reported that only 10% of day traders in America make enough money to sustain themselves purely on trading; 30% went bankrupt within (a small number of) months from starting trading. The remainder, obviously, made only a little money to supplement income or lost sufficiently least to avoid bankruptcy. In any case the numbers weren’t that good! I would also read between the lines here and say the majority of these people were directly involved in their investment decisions, and that if they hadn't been then the numbers failing would have been dramatically higher.
Removing the human from the loop may remove the emotion and the hesitation, but often it is this hesitation that will prevent you from making a stupid decision. Machines cannot make decisions on their own and will do EXACTLY what you tell them to do. The computer doesn't understand terms like, "why" and "I didn't mean that". Machines cannot take the blame. If you go broke, the creditors will not care that a computer was making bad investment choices on your behalf, especially so, if you tell them you wrote the program yourself! You will still have to fork over the deed to your house.
Many, many people have been working for a lot longer than I have been alive, using some of the most sophisticated computers and algorithms in the world to try to predict the stock market, and failed. Think of an easier problem to solve... like predicting the weather. The weather tomorrow will be relatively similar to today with some or no change! Even with the most massive computer systems and the most awesomely powerful algorithms, they only get the forecast right a small fraction of the time! (I have been programming computers for 23 years and still have trouble getting the computer to understand the "jist" of the problem, let alone tell me the answers!)
Additionally, there are times when connectivity to the internet and/or the exchange is not always possible, the bandwidth may not be there or the server or router may be busy and your trades are hanging, buy or sell (both situations are bad) Is there a back up system to the automation? Do you get warning of impending doom before it all goes legs up? If you do get a warning, how much warning? What could you do about it? etc etc
I just think there is too much to go wrong with what (I think) you want to achieve, that only a human (you) could identify and rectify, before you lose your house, partner and pets!
To my way of thinking (a lot longer term than most - I invest not trade) if a stock is a good buy, then it should still be a good buy tomorrow (investment terms) or at least in 60 minutes (for traders). If you have a system that is soooo time sensitive that you must trade within the nanosecond, I truly believe you will fail to achieve your expectations.
I may be playing the Devil's Advocate but if it stops you losing your nest-egg then I have done the right thing!
Hope this helps.
wabbit :D
Assistance is always appreciated - but... Sure you have to be careful, but if you aren't, then you shouldn't be in this game anyway :wink: Perhaps only 10% being successful is exactly because the remainder were directly involved, with intuition coming into play. Pure logic is good and sound - and if you cannot program a computer to do what you want it to do, I agree with wabbit, it is NOT the computers fault. BUT if you have a well-tested strategy (using system tester over historical data) that relies exclusively on logic, and this strategy is more profitable than non-profitable (please note, I did not say makes more profitable trades than non-proftable ones), it will always beat intuition, emotion, hesitation, etc hands-down.
It all comes down to one thing - are you an investor (like wabbit) or a day-trader. When day-trading, you do NOT have the time to end up in analysis paralysis (fundamentals, intuition, etc) - nor do you have the finger-speed to enter and/or close many trades quickly. It is a totally different game to investing - agreed, wabbit? I am really not knocking you, wabbit, but the underlying requirements and philosophies are fundamentally different. If you apply investing-thinking to day-trading, I fully agree with you, you are practically dead before you even start. But I am sick and tired of investors and fund managers (not saying you are amongst them, wabbit) making minimal returns on my money - I would rather day-trade, and be in control of it myself. How does a 80% ROI p.a. grab you, wabbit?
|